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We (Easily) Assume the Future Will be Like the Past

We take the same route to work every day without thought, and usually, it works just fine.

We do this because of a specific mental model that says, “What worked in the past will work the same way in the future.” If traffic is bad, the consequences aren’t usually enough to cause us to change.

But what happens when decisions have real consequences? In those cases, assuming the past is a good guide to the future is usually unwise.