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	<title>Kevin Hoffberg&#039;s Blog &#187; Barack Obama</title>
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	<description>The search for good decisions continues</description>
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		<title>I Can&#8217;t Help Myself (again)</title>
		<link>http://kevinhoffberg.com/blog/2011/09/08/i-cant-help-myself-again/</link>
		<comments>http://kevinhoffberg.com/blog/2011/09/08/i-cant-help-myself-again/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Sep 2011 22:43:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kevin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Current Affairs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Random Walk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Cantor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rick Perry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schadenfreude]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kevinhoffberg.com/blog/?p=1386</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[History channel on line two for Governor Perry.  You might want to rethink referencing Galileo in support of your anti-Science point of view. You know, the father of modern astronomy and the guy the church declared a heretic for claiming that the sun was the center of our galaxy? Did anyone get the license plate [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>History channel on line two for Governor Perry.  You might want to rethink referencing Galileo in support of your anti-Science point of view. You know, the father of modern astronomy and the guy the church declared a heretic for claiming that the sun was the center of our galaxy?</p>
<p>Did anyone get the license plate number of the Texas truck that ran over former candidate Bachman?</p>
<p>To file in the &#8220;coincidence or not?&#8221; column: The same day the local fish wrap reports that the few Americans that still have health care effectively can&#8217;t use it due to high deductibles and copays and low coverage we find that the local health care monopolist, Regence, is being excoriated (big word for Republican voters) for screwing not just their customers, but even non customers!</p>
<p>Best line from the GOP no-bate: Perry: &#8220;Your mother wears combat boots.&#8221; Romney &#8220;Yeah, well your mother does too!&#8221;</p>
<p>Bond investors have the over/under on Greece defaulting at 91%.  There&#8217;s a snappy line in there somewhere I just can&#8217;t think what it is.</p>
<p>Schadenfreude on line one for Governor Perry.  You didn&#8217;t really go on television and complain about how slow FEMA was in responding to the fires in your state? Did you?</p>
<p>This just in from Whiplash.com, Eric Cantor blew out his C2 and C3 changing direction on disaster relief offsets.  It turns out that only applies to disasters hitting states that went for Obama. Who loves you Rick!!!</p>
<p>Equal opportunity here, I didn&#8217;t think for a minute that Obama calling for a joint session of Congress on Sept 7 was a political stunt.  Did you?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s probably just me but you might want to rethink that $2 gas gambit Michele.  Hello? Hello?  Anyone there?</p>
<p>Another one for the &#8220;Huh?&#8221; column: An evangelical using the words &#8220;the science isn&#8217;t settled&#8221; in connection with, well, really anything.</p>
<p>Candidate Perry (Romney, Bachman, Santorum), it&#8217;s the department of Myths and Legends on line three wanting to know if they can cite you on &#8220;the earth is 6000 years old&#8221; for chapter five of the Texas standard science text.</p>
<p>Is it just me or is the sight of angry old white people cheering wildly when Candidate Perry says that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme just a bit creepy?</p>
<p>Stop me if you&#8217;ve heard this one.  Seven candidates walk into a bar and start a debate . . .</p>
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		<title>Advice to Obama. Process, not Positions, Matters Most</title>
		<link>http://kevinhoffberg.com/blog/2008/11/09/advice-to-obama-process-not-positions-matters-most/</link>
		<comments>http://kevinhoffberg.com/blog/2008/11/09/advice-to-obama-process-not-positions-matters-most/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Nov 2008 20:45:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kevin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Austan D. Goolsbee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Barack Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Cutler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision Quality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Furman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jeffrey Liebman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[N Gregiry Mankiw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[University of Chicago]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kevinhoffberg.com/blog/?p=325</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m with Nicholas Kristof.  Thank goodness the long cold winter of willful stupidity is thawing. Referring to the ascendancy of Barrak Obama . . . Maybe, just maybe, the result will be a step away from the anti-intellectualism that has long been a strain in American life. Smart and educated leadership is no panacea, but [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p>I&#8217;m with <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/opinion/09kristof.html">Nicholas Kristof</a>.  Thank goodness the long cold winter of willful stupidity is thawing. Referring to the ascendancy of Barrak Obama . . .</p>
<blockquote><p>Maybe, just maybe, the result will be a step away from the anti-intellectualism that has long been a strain in American life. Smart and educated leadership is no panacea, but we’ve seen recently that the converse — a White House that scorns expertise and shrugs at nuance — doesn’t get very far either.</p>
<p>We can’t solve our educational challenges when, according to polls, Americans are approximately as likely to believe in flying saucers as in evolution, and when one-fifth of Americans believe that the sun orbits the Earth.</p>
<p>Almost half of young Americans said in a 2006 poll that it was not necessary to know the locations of countries where important news was made. That must be a relief to Sarah Palin, who, according to Fox News, didn’t realize that Africa was a continent rather than a country.</p></blockquote>
<p>So excuse me if I gag on this:  Uber-economist Greg Mankiw, writing in today&#8217;s <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/business/09mankiw.html">NYT</a>, advises Prez elect Obama to . . .</p>
<blockquote><p><span class="bold">LISTEN TO THE ECONOMISTS </span>During the campaign, Senator Barack Obama assembled an impressive team of economic advisers from the nation’s top universities, including Austan D. Goolsbee of the University of Chicago and David Cutler and Jeffrey Liebman of Harvard. The campaign’s director of economic policy, Jason Furman, is a smart, sensible and well-trained policy economist. I know: he is a former student of mine.</p>
<p>It would be a good idea to pay close attention to what they have to say.</p></blockquote>
<p>Leaving aside that Mankiw is an economist and the crew he cites are pals, the implication that the children should go back to the little table so that the propeller heads can set things right is as wrongheaded as it is offensive.  Don&#8217;t get me wrong, I&#8217;m a huge fan of intellect, education, and all around smarts.  But let&#8217;s be clear on three points . . .</p>
<ol>
<li>Propeller heads where the arms merchants of the mess we&#8217;re in right now. </li>
<li>Economists aren&#8217;t a singular breed.  Find one who thinks one thing and I&#8217;ll show you another who thinks the opposite.</li>
<li>Economists as a group have been miserable failures at predicting nearly everything (with some exceptions). In the history of the dismal profession, you can count on no hands the number who have been able to call the tops or bottoms of markets with any more accuracy than a third grader.</li>
</ol>
<p>I realize this sounds like a knee-jerk reaction because it is. Smart people are as capable, often more so, as the rest of us of making really bad decisions.  Or to put it another way, high IQ and multiple degrees isn&#8217;t necessarily a surefire defense against the litany of thinking traps that cause smart people to make bad decisions.  I&#8217;m sure I&#8217;m sure I&#8217;m projecting here, but I think a more sensible recommendation would sound like this . . .</p>
<ol>
<li>Spend as much time as possible exploring the problem you&#8217;re trying to solve.  Solving the wrong problem really well gets us nowhere.  </li>
<li>To do that, make sure you consult with people who don&#8217;t agree with you.  Seek divergent and disconfirming points of view.</li>
<li>Pull decision making into the open.  The level of opaqueness these past years has been crippling.  Set up lots of war rooms with big visual maps of the problem as you currently understand it.  Keep looking at it, as long as you can.  You&#8217;ll be surprised at the insights serendipity will offer you.</li>
<li>If you really want to change things, insist on more dialog and less advocacy.  We&#8217;ve seen enough staking out positions to last us seven lifetimes.  </li>
<li>Generate a wide range of alternatives.  No party has a lock on good ideas.  Certainly no economist does.  Consider really weird ideas. Trailing after something that seems initially absurd often leads to unexpected insights.</li>
<li>You&#8217;re going to have to make trade-offs.  Make your decision criteria absolutely clear.  Insist on intellectually honest debate and advocacy. Once you make a decision, make it clear to us why you made the trade-offs you made.  Give us visibility into your process.</li>
<li>Be honest about uncertainty.  The cool you project gives you plenty of rhetorical room to remind us that nothing is certain. There will be outcomes we don&#8217;t expect or even want.  That&#8217;s just how these things work.  But don&#8217;t shrink behind the kind of bullheaded bluster that was the trademark of the last guy (and don&#8217;t descend into the weird self-doubts of the Carter years).</li>
</ol>
<div>Again from Kristoff . . .</div>
<blockquote>
<div>An intellectual is a person interested in ideas and comfortable with complexity. Intellectuals read the classics, even when no one is looking, because they appreciate the lessons of Sophocles and Shakespeare that the world abounds in uncertainties and contradictions, and — President Bush, lend me your ears — that leaders self-destruct when they become too rigid and too intoxicated with the fumes of moral clarity.</div>
</blockquote>
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