Following are my live notes from a panel I just watched at the BAI Retail Delivery Conference with . . .
George Stephanopoulos
ABC News’ Chief Washington Correspondent and Anchor, ABC’s
This Week
Katty Kay
Washington Correspondent, BBC World News America
Tucker Carlson
Senior Campaign Correspondent, MSNBC
First, a caveat. They’re raw and not well edited. They are interesting though.
Some themes I’m picking up on . . .
- There will be major financial regulation legislation introduced in the first half of 2009.
- GM will get thrown a lifeline. See following point.
- Economists of all stripes are well and truly terrified about what’s going on out there. Even the free market guys are saying the government needs to save and stimulate. In other words, it’s worse that most of us think.
- The economy will suck next year. Four more quarters of misery. You won’t find this later point in the run notes, but it’s what I’m getting from talking with other people.
- The Republican party is right now thoroughly irrelevant on the national stage (and deserves to be).
- The era of “big government is dead” is dead.
To the notes . . .
George
When we got to election day, it seemed like Obama was expected to win. Wind back four years . . .
Katty
If you think about it, it was a meteoric rise, even though we all felt warn out by the process. Nobody would have expected it four years ago. Chart his rise over those four years, up until Feb of this year, it didn’t seem possible. Not until he won in Iowa.
George
Key moment of Obama campaign was in 2002 when he gave the speech running for the Senate, against the war.
Tucker
Gave him a foothold. He beat the toughest politician in the world, Hilary. They control the party.
The war didn’t turn out to be the central issue of the campaign.
People vote for how voting makes people feel about themselves and their country. I’m putting my chips in a different pile.
Katty
If you talked to us in August of this year, we would have been more skeptical. He was floundering slightly. Under attack. He didn’t have a good response. There were pollsters saying people say one thing but will vote differently.
George
Remarkable how little a role race played. I think he took care of that with the speech he made after the Wright tapes came out. He got people comfortable with the idea of voting for an African American.
Tucker
The parts he lost wouldn’t be comfortable voting for him for a lot of reasons. But many areas of the country have changed demographically in ways we don’t see.
I don’t think his speech dealt with race. He won because Bush is so bad and he is so talented. He got a pass from the press. He never answered the question about what he was doing in that church for all those years?
Most candidates that wind up winning are vetted more than Obama was.
George
Another place he got a pass was on opting out of public financing.
Katty
It was a strategically smart decision. Conservative commentators called it a Jekyll and Hyde moment. An iron fist in the velvet glove. Same with selection of Rahm does.
You look at the way that American has changed, the states that Kerry lost and Obama won, they’ve become younger, more urban, and more diverse. We didn’t see that at the time.
George
Obama now has the coalition that Rove thought he could get for the Republican party.
Is this a realignment election?
Tucker
No question. When you lose, it tends to stay lost.
You can’t overstate the demographic changes we’ve talked about. We have more unmarried women in this country than married. Unprecedented in history. Being married and with kids signals becoming a Republican. It means they’ll vote Democratic.
Katty
Hispanics. We all said they wouldn’t vote for a black man. In the end, Obama reached out to them. They are very culturally conservative. A group the Republicans ought to be able to tap into. Immigration wiped it away. McCain’s support for reform notwithstanding, they couldn’t get past that.
George
I think you can argue that the minute a Democrat got nominated, it was over for the Republican.
Tucker
Agree completely. Maybe if Dennis Kucinich had been the guy . . .
McCain’s mishandling the economic meltdown did him in. Obama was Delta airlines. “This is your captain speaking. We’re experiencing some turbulence . . .” McCain was like a fighter pilot. “BOGEY AT 11!”
Katty
He could have not suspended his campaign, which he didn’t do. At that point, the word “erratic” was introduced into the lexicon and that didn’t help him. Saying he wouldn’t go to the debate then he did.
One of the fascinating things is why the polls were so tight for so long. We shouldn’t underestimate the extent to which McCain touched people all over the country. Not just veterans. A very appealing life story that touches people. If there were a Republican who had a shot, it was him.
George
Going into the convention, McCain team knew they were struggling, but had a shot.
Tucker
Sarah Palin. Four words. “Oh, what the hell.” We’re likely to lose anyway. She’s cute. Why not?
It was a roll of the dice. I’m not one who condemns it as moronic.
George
She was literally the only person in the country who could solve the problem. A woman that conservatives loved.
Tucker
The Republican Convention was the highest rated convention in history. VP Debates out polled Presidential debates. SNL best numbers ever.
Katty
I remember watching television with my Husband, and he said “I get why men like her.” “She’s so cute and looks like she doesn’t give her husband a hard time.”
She had this thing with men. I went to her rallies and men went crazy for her. She wasn’t put there just for the base. And to peel away women. But Hilary women were insulted by the pick.
George
After her interviews with Charlie and Katie, the country said wait a second, she may be cute and appealing, but she’s not ready.
Tucker
Everyone knew she was going to get a going over. When it turns out that Stevie Wonder reads more than you do, it’s a problem.
America is looking for a President that can speak English, particularly after Bush.
George
Was she spooked?
Katty
The process by which she was chosen was a bit like he handled the economy. Was he making sensible choices for the country. Particularly through the Katie interviews when she stared to fluff, it reflected poorly on him. Erratic and not safe.
George
McCain came to be viewed as not the safe choice.
Katty
The first debate was meant to be about security, the first half of it was about the economy. All everyone wanted to talk about the economy, yet Foreign Policy was his strong suit and he didn’t get to talk about it.
Tucker
Any time you put on programming that pertains to something beyond our shores, even if it’s a war, people go to Wheel of Fortune.
George
In a world where the fears about the economy are so deep . . .
Katty
People come to me and say, wow, “who would have thought that Iceland would go down the tubes?”
George
This election was so closely watched overseas. Obama himself felt that one of the unique things he brought was that if he won, people would look at us differently.
Katty
Being popular abroad in an American election is a double-edged sword. When Kerry was criticized in 2004 for being out of touch.
I believe that one of the most important jobs is to improve America’s reputation around the world. It’s an issue of National Security. If the anti-American sentiment can decline, it makes us more secure.
There has been this huge amount of interest. The honeymoon won’t last as long as people think. There are fundamental differences between Europe and America in Afghanistan, trade, etc.
The level of dissatisfaction with the Bosh administration has been so high the past eight years.
George
Is this anti-Bush or anti-American. Speculate about the Bush legacy. The most unpopular President ever. But he believes history will bear him out.
Tucker
It will depend on what happens in Iran and Afghanistan. Interesting, he was also the most popular.
Very few people don’t remember why Truman was so unpopular. He was calling up people five years after the biggest war in history.
How America is viewed abroad is really important. That’s part of Obama’s appeal. Whether or not that is useful to us over the long term remains to be seen. Countries act out of their own interest, not out of affection.
Katty
Being like, does help. Being hated has not helped. A useful platform to start building on .
Tucker
We imagine that this period is unprecedented. Ludicrous. Reagan was despised. Nixon was stoned in Latin America.
George
We’ve been the only Superpower the past 12 years, and one of two before then. Maybe we’ll be first of equals, but it’s different.
Let’s talk about how he will lead. In his first press conference, he wouldn’t bite on any questions on foreign policy. He may face exactly the same confrontations Bush faced.
Katty
A lot of enigmas about Obama. What kind of leader will he be? He’s said things about talking with Iran, but his position has slightly changed. America has been squeezed out of decision making because we don’t talk. Now he’s talking about Hilary who says she won’t talk. He’s sending out mixed signals.
George
It’s Hilary’s to turn down. Gates will stay. Jim Jones at NSA. Susan Rice at UN. With the exception of Susan Rice, this is truly a team of rivals. People say he’s elected to be completely different. His foreign policy team doesn’t seem like change.
Tucker
I take great comfort about the quality of people he’s bringing in. These are moves of a guy who respects experience and collective wisdom. He has a very calm temperament.
George
Iraq is taking care of Iraq for him. After 3 years, we need permission to stay.
Katty
There are people in Iraq who are concerned about what Obama will do.
George
How about the broader clues from the Obama picks. We see a lot of Clinton alumni. We see another group from his campaign team.
Tucker
The most interesting pick is Rahm Emmanuel. A lot of Republicans say he’s backing off his central campaign promise of changing the tone. His primary job is to keep Democrats at bay. He’s there to keep Nancy Pelosi at bay.
George
Obama never considered anyone other than Rahm to take the job. Seven years in the White House, four years in investment banking, seven years in the House, and then the Chicago thing. He has my back.
Katty
Obama doesn’t hold grudges. Rahm didn’t come out for him until the very end and Obama doesn’t hold grudges.
George
What about the economic team?
Katty
If Hilary takes Sec of State, then Larry Summers is less likely as Treasury. Larry is running into a lot of flack from his Harvard comments. There is a counter-revolution being led by very smart and strong women. I’m not sure it will get far enough. The Obama doesn’t want to have a lot of drama here. I think it’s a shame. I hear form economist in Washington that when it comes to macroeconomics, he’s the best there is.
Tucker
I think it’s a troubling sight. A big development. One of the first things you have to do is to keeping your own side under control. Keeping the interest groups under control. He can’t give into the PC nonsense before he’s even in office . . .
George
That issue they can overcome. Anyone will get through. A separate question is that does it feel like it’s too much Clinton?
You could argue that Tim G is a double-edged sword.
Tucker
Which Republicans? People say Hagel, but the drama between McCain and Hagel has never been explored. It may be too much. He has a history of breaking with people in ugly ways. Hot headed.
George
What should we expect out of the first year? What I’m hearing is that the Obama team is contemplating a stimulus package far in excess of what anyone was thinking.
Katty
I’m amazed out how terrified economists are. I’ve heard rabid free marketers say that we need to bail out GM. The system is not strong enough to absorb the shock.
The question is, can he do anything other than the economy? He has an ambitious agenda. Or does the fact that the company is in crisis, does that give him a mandate?
Tucker
We need to make a distinction between what people say they care about and do care about. People really don’t care about deficit spending. So where is the political cost for massive deficit spending. There are no free marketers in a foxhole.
George
We’re not really sure how we got into this mess because we weren’t sure what we were selling. Now we don’t know how to get out because we don’t know what the problem is.
Katty
Almost every time Paulson speaks, he’s changing what to do with TARP. And he’s not happy about that. The problem has gotten so much worse . . .
Tucker
The under lying belief is that the executive branch controls the economy and can just push some buttons. But that’s not the case. We over estimate what any one person can do.
We’re mortgaging a lot here. The federal government will wind up owning a lot of things we didn’t expect it to own.
George
Fed is the biggest insurance company in the world, investment bank, mortgage bank, and now auto companies and maybe cities.
Katty
When TARP came out, it was buy some bad assets, hold them, and sell later. Now the concern is that if you get into all these other areas, it’s a very different philosophical approach.
George
Congress will pass a major financial regulation before the next G20 meeting.
Now we’re moving away from “big government is dead.”
Tucker
There is one person defending free markets, and it’s Phil Graham. Right now, the Republican party is irrelevant.
We haven’t had these conversations in a free and open debate. This is entirely a fear-based reaction. We’ve been watching a huge march to big government since 9/11.
George
What is the crisis most likely that Obama can’t see that will define him? Second, who is likely to emerge as leader of GOP?
Tucker
Newt Gingrich will emerge as a leading voice on the right because he’s always been there. But he won’t get the nomination. But he’s one of the sharpest thinkers on that side when there is little competition for that title.
Challenges? Pakistan will be a huge problem. The one problem that I don’t think they’re equal to. The Obama people share the Neocon view that democracy is the universal panacea, and it’s not.
Katty
I look to the generational split. Maybe we’re missing the message. Now that American’s are interested in is health care and energy. A feeling with young Republicans that they need to talk on the issues the Democrats are.
I think the challenge will be economic. China is slowing down, not heating up. That will have a big effect on the US and how will the Obama team handle that?
George
Eric Cantor. Possibly, I wouldn’t rule out Governor Pawlenty.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama doesn’t have to deal with an nuclear Iran much sooner than they thought they would.
Tags: GeorgeStephanopoulos, Katty Kay, Tucker Carlson, Barack Obama, John McCain, Larry Summers, Hilary Clinton, Pawlenty
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